A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births.
The 2046 line starts at around 100,000 each for both males and females at age zero with steep peak above 140,000 around age 20, followed by a gradual decrease to around 125,000 close to age 55, followed by a decline to age 95+.This chart has three lines showing the evolution of the share of Ontario’s population in age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ over the 1971-2046 period. Until the mid-2020s, the pace of increase in the annual number of deaths in Ontario is projected to slow as the small cohorts born during the 1930s approach the end of their lifespan. This means total life expectancy gains of 5.6 years for males and 4.1 years for females between 2016 and 2046.In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases at a slower pace, to 84.5 years for males and 87.2 years for females by 2046. To obtain the most current version of this document, visit ontario.ca/finance and enter 282 in the find page field at the bottom of the webpage or contact the ministry at 1 866 668-8297 (1 800 263-7776 for teletypewriter).- Last Modified: Tuesday, October 1, 2019 In the high scenario, annual population growth goes from 2.1% to 1.6% over the projection period. Although this represents a majority of census divisions, they will account for only 24 per cent of Ontario’s population in 2046.This declining trend in natural increase means that many census divisions in Ontario where natural increase previously was the main or even sole contributor to population growth have already started to see their population growth slow.
An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time. Amendment 1 to the Growth Plan (2012) allocated population and employment figures to each of the sixteen local municipalities within the County of Simcoe up to 2031 and included policies allowing municipalities to exceed their population allocations up to a County-wide total of 20,000 persons. These higher shares are projected to continue in the projections.
This pattern is usually closely tied to economic cycles.Over the past 30 years, net interprovincial migration has not contributed to Ontario’s population growth, with net losses averaging about 2,500 people per year. In June 2017 the Ministry of Municipal Affairs released a new This is a significant increase from 2014, when the target range was 240,000 to 265,000.Over the past few years, the share of immigrants to Canada settling in Ontario has been increasing, from 36.8 per cent in calendar year 2014 to 42.8 per cent in 2018. In the low scenario, net interprovincial migration is set at 15,300 for 2018-19, 10,200 for 2019-20, and gradually falls to a net outflow of 5,000 starting in 2022-23. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants decreases slowly from 414,000 in 2018â19 to 402,000 in 2045â46. The city is located in Simcoe County but is not governed by the county, as it is independent.
The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions.The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends.This line chart shows the estimated total population of Ontario from 1971 to 2018, and the projection to 2046 for the three scenarios (reference, high and low).