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She remains convinced that the United States is her only salvation — border walls be damned. As moisture raises the grain in a slab of wood, the information just needed to be elicited. Should emissions remain high, there is a physical plausibility, toward the end of the century, of sea levels rising faster than previously anticipated due to Antarctic Ice Sheet destabilization. Under every scientific forecast for global climate change, El Salvador gets hotter and drier, and our model was in accord with what other researchers said was likely: San Salvador will continue to grow as a result, putting still more people in its dense outer rings. In the nine countries stretching across the continent from Mauritania to Sudan, extraordinary population growth and steep environmental decline are on a collision course.
Together, Oppenheimer and Krueger, who died in 2019, began to chip away at the question, asking whether tools typically used by economists might yield insight into the environment’s effects on people’s decision to migrate. They are signposts for what is to come.
In the center of town, the truck lurched to a stop amid a busy market, where stalls sell vegetables and toys under blue light filtered through plastic tarps overhead. The result: Migration is only superficially explored in the paper. Either they couldn’t grow food or the drought made it too expensive to buy. There is no money from the federal government, no staffing to address services, no housing, let alone shelter, no more good will. At the same time, Mexico has its own serious climate concerns and will most likely see its own climate exodus. Over the course of 2019, El Paso, Texas, had endured a crush of people at its border crossings, peaking at more than 4,000 migrants in a single day, as the same caravans of Central Americans that had worn out their welcome in Tapachula made their way here. (A more detailed description of the data project can be found at The result will almost certainly be the greatest wave of global migration the world has seen. The heat, according to researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, will drive deaths that soon outpace those from car crashes or opioid overdoses. Half the children are chronically hungry, and many are short for their age, with weak bones and bloated bellies. Many floated across the Suchiate on boards tied atop large inner tubes, paying guides a couple of dollars for passage. Since then, Oppenheimer’s approach has become common. She hasn’t worked in three months and is unable to see her daughters in El Paste. Delmira de Jesús Cortez Barrera moved to the outskirts of San Salvador six years ago, after her life in the rural western edge of El Salvador — just 90 miles from Jorge A.’s village in Guatemala — collapsed. The projected number of migrants arriving from Central America and Mexico rises to 1.5 million a year by 2050, from about 700,000 a year in 2025.We modeled another scenario in which the United States hardens its borders. Scientists have learned to project such changes around the world with surprising precision, but — until recently — little has been known about the human consequences of those changes. Percentage of El Salvador’s 6.4 million residents who currently lack a reliable source of food: As refugees stream out of the Middle East and North Africa into Europe and from Central America into the United States, an anti-immigrant backlash has propelled nationalist governments into power around the world. I asked him if he thought Mexico could sustain the number of migrants who might soon come. Responding to Climate Change in New York State. Since 2000, San Salvador’s population has ballooned by more than a third as it has absorbed migrants from the rural areas, even as tens of thousands of people continue to leave the country and migrate north. But it was hyperlocal instead of global, and it left open huge questions: how cultural differences might change outcomes, for example, or how population shifts might occur across larger regions. People will congregate in slums, with little water or electricity, where they are more vulnerable to flooding or other disasters. Now they live in Houston, where until the pandemic, Jorge found steady work in construction, earning enough to pay his debts and send some money home. Rodríguez had already been tested. A former Army Air Forces captain and fighter pilot who grew up in Chicago, Hinde said the United States is turning its own fears into reality when it comes to immigration, something he witnesses in a growing distrust of everyone who crosses the border. Trying to project the consequences of climate-driven migration, to Oppenheimer, called for similarly provocative efforts. Already, by late last year, the Mexican government’s ill-planned policies had begun to unravel into something more insidious: rising resentment and hate.
Here we can see how climate change can act as what Defense Department officials sometimes refer to as a “threat multiplier.” For Cortez, the threat could not have been more dire. Populations will surge, and cross-border movement will be restricted, leading to greater suffering.
She remains convinced that the United States is her only salvation — border walls be damned. As moisture raises the grain in a slab of wood, the information just needed to be elicited. Should emissions remain high, there is a physical plausibility, toward the end of the century, of sea levels rising faster than previously anticipated due to Antarctic Ice Sheet destabilization. Under every scientific forecast for global climate change, El Salvador gets hotter and drier, and our model was in accord with what other researchers said was likely: San Salvador will continue to grow as a result, putting still more people in its dense outer rings. In the nine countries stretching across the continent from Mauritania to Sudan, extraordinary population growth and steep environmental decline are on a collision course.
Together, Oppenheimer and Krueger, who died in 2019, began to chip away at the question, asking whether tools typically used by economists might yield insight into the environment’s effects on people’s decision to migrate. They are signposts for what is to come.
In the center of town, the truck lurched to a stop amid a busy market, where stalls sell vegetables and toys under blue light filtered through plastic tarps overhead. The result: Migration is only superficially explored in the paper. Either they couldn’t grow food or the drought made it too expensive to buy. There is no money from the federal government, no staffing to address services, no housing, let alone shelter, no more good will. At the same time, Mexico has its own serious climate concerns and will most likely see its own climate exodus. Over the course of 2019, El Paso, Texas, had endured a crush of people at its border crossings, peaking at more than 4,000 migrants in a single day, as the same caravans of Central Americans that had worn out their welcome in Tapachula made their way here. (A more detailed description of the data project can be found at The result will almost certainly be the greatest wave of global migration the world has seen. The heat, according to researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, will drive deaths that soon outpace those from car crashes or opioid overdoses. Half the children are chronically hungry, and many are short for their age, with weak bones and bloated bellies. Many floated across the Suchiate on boards tied atop large inner tubes, paying guides a couple of dollars for passage. Since then, Oppenheimer’s approach has become common. She hasn’t worked in three months and is unable to see her daughters in El Paste. Delmira de Jesús Cortez Barrera moved to the outskirts of San Salvador six years ago, after her life in the rural western edge of El Salvador — just 90 miles from Jorge A.’s village in Guatemala — collapsed. The projected number of migrants arriving from Central America and Mexico rises to 1.5 million a year by 2050, from about 700,000 a year in 2025.We modeled another scenario in which the United States hardens its borders. Scientists have learned to project such changes around the world with surprising precision, but — until recently — little has been known about the human consequences of those changes. Percentage of El Salvador’s 6.4 million residents who currently lack a reliable source of food: As refugees stream out of the Middle East and North Africa into Europe and from Central America into the United States, an anti-immigrant backlash has propelled nationalist governments into power around the world. I asked him if he thought Mexico could sustain the number of migrants who might soon come. Responding to Climate Change in New York State. Since 2000, San Salvador’s population has ballooned by more than a third as it has absorbed migrants from the rural areas, even as tens of thousands of people continue to leave the country and migrate north. But it was hyperlocal instead of global, and it left open huge questions: how cultural differences might change outcomes, for example, or how population shifts might occur across larger regions. People will congregate in slums, with little water or electricity, where they are more vulnerable to flooding or other disasters. Now they live in Houston, where until the pandemic, Jorge found steady work in construction, earning enough to pay his debts and send some money home. Rodríguez had already been tested. A former Army Air Forces captain and fighter pilot who grew up in Chicago, Hinde said the United States is turning its own fears into reality when it comes to immigration, something he witnesses in a growing distrust of everyone who crosses the border. Trying to project the consequences of climate-driven migration, to Oppenheimer, called for similarly provocative efforts. Already, by late last year, the Mexican government’s ill-planned policies had begun to unravel into something more insidious: rising resentment and hate.
Here we can see how climate change can act as what Defense Department officials sometimes refer to as a “threat multiplier.” For Cortez, the threat could not have been more dire. Populations will surge, and cross-border movement will be restricted, leading to greater suffering.